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The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 37 games
59%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 33 games
55%
Mirana
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
55%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 33 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 28 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 28 games
68%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
65%
Rubick
Rubick
Sneyking · 22 games
50%

Gaimin Gladiators

Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 57 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 38 games
68%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 34 games
76%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 34 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 33 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 32 games
66%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
670 picks · 706 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
620 picks · 429 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
566 picks · 1118 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 992 bans
49%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
466 picks · 1174 bans
56%
Enchantress
Enchantress
438 picks · 712 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
433 picks · 394 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
425 picks · 1120 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total50% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
Tundra Esports 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenSkiter
57% · 101 game49% · 222 games
TimbersawQuinn
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireNine
44% · 481 game52% · 148 games
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Faceless Void
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
48% · 190 games53% · 223 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Tiny
TinySneyking
52% · 639 games50% · 320 games
BatriderSeleri
Batrider
Pugna
PugnaAui_2000
49% · 185 games47% · 683 games
RubicktOfu
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed11:29
Tundra Esports 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc Warden
Arc WardenNine
33% · 5 games49% · 128 games
Juggernautdyrachyo
Juggernaut
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerSkiter
43% · 143 games42% · 185 games
WindrangerQuinn
Windranger
Batrider
Batrider33
56% · 203 games54% · 116 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerSneyking
52% · 124 games47% · 234 games
EnchantressSeleri
Enchantress
Techies
TechiesAui_2000
50% · 236 games61% · 48 games
LiontOfu
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 50%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2