The Bali Major 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Doomoften banned
33 · 37 games
Beastmasteroften banned
33 · 33 games
Mirana
Sneyking · 33 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 33 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 28 games
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 28 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 23 games
Rubick
Sneyking · 22 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 57 games
Undyingsignature
Seleri · 42 games
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 38 games
Disruptorsignature
tOfu · 34 games
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 34 games
Beastmastersignature
Ace · 33 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 32 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
670 picks · 706 bans
Rubick
620 picks · 429 bans
Doom
566 picks · 1118 bans
Ember Spirit
475 picks · 992 bans
Beastmaster
466 picks · 1174 bans
Enchantress
438 picks · 712 bans
Disruptor
433 picks · 394 bans
Batrider
425 picks · 1120 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total50% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:36
Tundra Esports 50%Gaimin Gladiators 50%
The model gave 50% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSkiter
TimbersawQuinn
SnapfireNine
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
Tidehunter33
BroodmotherAce
TinySneyking
BatriderSeleri
PugnaAui_2000
RubicktOfu
Game 2prediction missed11:29
Tundra Esports 53%Gaimin Gladiators 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenNine
Juggernautdyrachyo
BloodseekerSkiter
WindrangerQuinn
Batrider33
BroodmotherAce
Spirit BreakerSneyking
EnchantressSeleri
TechiesAui_2000
LiontOfu
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 50%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2