UPEA Ukrainian Cup 2021 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 6 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 3 games
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
NARMAN · 17 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 17 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 16 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 11 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Juggernautoften banned
kAAN · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
411 picks · 198 bans
Mars
389 picks · 586 bans
Puck
380 picks · 886 bans
Snapfire
367 picks · 205 bans
Grimstroke
352 picks · 332 bans
Tiny
314 picks · 229 bans
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 385 bans
Ancient Apparition
263 picks · 355 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
V-Gaming 51%No Bounty Hunter 49%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaTA2000
GyrocopterLowskill
ViperhAze
Puckntakii
Tidehunterlaise
Earth SpiritNARMAN
LionArrOw
Dark SeerBliNcc
AbaddonMalady
Ancient ApparitionFlash
Game 2prediction correct49:23
V-Gaming 50%No Bounty Hunter 50%
The model gave 50% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinahAze
UrsaLowskill
Templar AssassinTA2000
Dragon Knightntakii
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
RazorBliNcc
LionArrOw
WindrangerNARMAN
ClockwerkMalady
Ancient ApparitionFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 53%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2