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UPEA Ukrainian Cup 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
No Bounty Hunterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 6 games
33%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
TA2000 · 4 games
25%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 3 games
33%

No Bounty Hunter

Rubick
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
NARMAN · 17 games
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 17 games
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 16 games
31%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 13 games
69%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
kAAN · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
411 picks · 198 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 586 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 886 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 205 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 332 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 229 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 385 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
263 picks · 355 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 40%
Hero pool strength50% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:19
V-Gaming 51%No Bounty Hunter 49%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
49% · 91 game50% · 65 games
GyrocopterLowskill
Gyrocopter
Viper
ViperhAze
43% · 68 games50% · 264 games
Puckntakii
Puck
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
56% · 107 games46% · 129 games
Earth SpiritNARMAN
Earth Spirit
Lion
LionArrOw
51% · 250 games42% · 57 games
Dark SeerBliNcc
Dark Seer
Abaddon
AbaddonMalady
51% · 126 games58% · 127 games
Ancient ApparitionFlash
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct49:23
V-Gaming 50%No Bounty Hunter 50%
The model gave 50% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinahAze
42% · 54 games46% · 89 games
UrsaLowskill
Ursa
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
61% · 59 games46% · 87 games
Dragon Knightntakii
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
54% · 68 games54% · 76 games
RazorBliNcc
Razor
Lion
LionArrOw
44% · 143 games63% · 20 games
WindrangerNARMAN
Windranger
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMalady
48% · 76 games52% · 128 games
Ancient ApparitionFlash
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 53%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2