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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Limitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Rubick
Rubicksignature
fy · 11 games
91%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 11 games
91%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
78%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Setsu · 8 games
88%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 8 games
63%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Yang · 7 games
71%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
86%

Limit

Tusk
Tusksignature
Yds · 20 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 9 games
78%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 9 games
78%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
89%
Silencer
Silencer
Victoria · 8 games
50%
Lich
Lichsignature
Victoria · 7 games
100%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 7 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
790 picks · 546 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
568 picks · 397 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 436 bans
48%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
447 picks · 728 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
416 picks · 807 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
406 picks · 293 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 851 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:14
Vici Gaming 66%Limit 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beast
Primal Beastniu
49% · 179 games55% · 177 games
Nature's Prophet冷鸟
Nature's Prophet
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinpoyoyo
36% · 39 games51% · 95 games
UrsaKry
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSetsu
54% · 168 games47% · 244 games
Ember SpiritChosenone
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
51% · 234 games60% · 28 games
Spirit Breakercxk
Spirit Breaker
Jakiro
JakiroYang
46% · 65 games51% · 141 game
Disruptor出省
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct43:5
Vici Gaming 70%Limit 30%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 17:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
Slarkpoyoyo
49% · 66 games54% · 11 games
NecrophosChosenone
Necrophos
Axe
Axeniu
57% · 3 games52% · 21 game
Spirit Breaker冷鸟
Spirit Breaker
Oracle
OracleSetsu
65% · 22 games41% · 31 game
JuggernautKry
Juggernaut
Clockwerk
Clockwerkfy
54% · 156 games39% · 117 games
Silencer出省
Silencer
Disruptor
DisruptorYang
57% · 75 games47% · 142 games
Batridercxk
Batrider
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 81%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2