Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Rubicksignature
fy · 11 games
Tusksignature
Frisk · 11 games
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Setsu · 8 games
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 8 games
Clockwerksignature
Yang · 7 games
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
Limit
Tusksignature
Yds · 20 games
Death Prophetsignature
Srf · 9 games
Tinysignature
Yds · 9 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 9 games
Silencer
Victoria · 8 games
Lichsignature
Victoria · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Srf · 7 games
Doomoften banned
Srf · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
790 picks · 546 bans
Tiny
568 picks · 397 bans
Treant Protector
527 picks · 569 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 436 bans
Nature's Prophet
447 picks · 728 bans
Death Prophet
416 picks · 807 bans
Snapfire
406 picks · 293 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 851 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)69% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:14
Vici Gaming 66%Limit 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Primal Beastniu
Nature's Prophet冷鸟
Phantom Assassinpoyoyo
UrsaKry
Dragon KnightSetsu
Ember SpiritChosenone
Clockwerkfy
Spirit Breakercxk
JakiroYang
Disruptor出省
Game 2prediction correct43:5
Vici Gaming 70%Limit 30%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 17:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slarkpoyoyo
NecrophosChosenone
Axeniu
Spirit Breaker冷鸟
OracleSetsu
JuggernautKry
Clockwerkfy
Silencer出省
DisruptorYang
Batridercxk
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 81%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2