DreamLeague Season 22 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 19 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 17 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 13 games
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 12 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
Tinysignature
sayuw · 11 games
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Gaimin Gladiators
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
Muertasignature
tOfu · 18 games
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 17 games
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 12 games
Lone Druidsignature
Ace · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Seleri · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
366 picks · 321 bans
Centaur Warrunner
327 picks · 479 bans
Vengeful Spirit
326 picks · 313 bans
Pangolier
272 picks · 385 bans
Hoodwink
257 picks · 143 bans
Mars
257 picks · 344 bans
Techies
256 picks · 174 bans
Magnus
249 picks · 469 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total76% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:24
Virtus.pro 37%Gaimin Gladiators 63%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKiritych
Svendyrachyo
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Void SpiritQuinn
WindrangerSquad1x
MagnusAce
Rubicksayuw
GyrocoptertOfu
EnigmaFng
Vengeful SpiritSeleri
Game 2prediction correct17:30
Virtus.pro 38%Gaimin Gladiators 62%
The model gave 62% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 43:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenKiritych
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
TinySquad1x
PuckQuinn
RazorNoticed
MagnusAce
Windrangersayuw
TechiestOfu
MiranaFng
UndyingSeleri
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 76%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2