BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs predictionseries probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dark Willowsignature
sayuw · 14 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 13 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 13 games
Earthshakersignature
Squad1x · 11 games
Pangoliersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
Tinysignature
Squad1x · 10 games
HULIGANI
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 5 games
Luna
RAMZES666 · 5 games
Dark Willow
Immersion · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
RodjER · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Immersion · 3 games
Crystal Maiden
RodjER · 2 games
Doomoften banned
kasane · 2 games
Lion
Immersion · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
263 picks · 444 bans
Phoenix
241 picks · 381 bans
Centaur Warrunner
232 picks · 308 bans
Muerta
225 picks · 317 bans
Dark Willow
215 picks · 101 bans
Tusk
212 picks · 201 bans
Treant Protector
193 picks · 363 bans
Kunkka
189 picks · 521 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:6
Virtus.pro 59%HULIGANI 41%
The model gave 59% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 24:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritSquad1x
MorphlingRAMZES666
WindrangerKiritych
Razorkasane
MagnusNoticed
Invokerkiyotaka
Pugnasayuw
TinyImmersion
Vengeful SpiritFng
Shadow DemonRodjER
Game 2prediction correct26:6
Virtus.pro 56%HULIGANI 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 26:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKiritych
Death Prophetkiyotaka
Centaur WarrunnerNoticed
Beastmasterkasane
Ember SpiritSquad1x
Faceless VoidRAMZES666
Rubicksayuw
LionImmersion
Crystal MaidenFng
Dark WillowRodjER
Game 3prediction correct38:25
Virtus.pro 58%HULIGANI 42%
The model gave 58% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 40:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerKiritych
Magnuskiyotaka
RazorNoticed
Dragon Knightkasane
Keeper of the LightSquad1x
MorphlingRAMZES666
Tinysayuw
Nature's ProphetRodjER
Crystal MaidenFng
GrimstrokeImmersion
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 64%
Series resultVirtus.pro 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3