FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 11 games
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
Batridersignature
prblms · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
Muerta
OneJey · 10 games
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 20 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
Warlocksignature
Speeed · 13 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
479 picks · 470 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 566 bans
Ringmaster
338 picks · 158 bans
Terrorblade
285 picks · 536 bans
Phantom Assassin
279 picks · 576 bans
Beastmaster
270 picks · 583 bans
Bristleback
267 picks · 508 bans
Muerta
266 picks · 150 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
Virtus.pro 60%Wildcard Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
KunkkaRCY
Ember SpiritLorenof
MorphlingYamSun
MedusaDaxak
BristlebackFayde
WarlockRein
JakiroSpeeed
TuskAntares
Nyx AssassinBignum
Game 2prediction correct24:13
Virtus.pro 61%Wildcard Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerV-Tune
TinyYamSun
Dragon KnightLorenof
Storm SpiritRCY
TerrorbladeDaxak
DawnbreakerFayde
BatriderAntares
TuskBignum
Ancient ApparitionRein
JakiroSpeeed
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2