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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 16 games
75%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
53%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Muerta
Muerta
OneJey · 10 games
30%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 20 games
40%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
50%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Speeed · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fayde · 11 games
45%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Bignum · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
479 picks · 470 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
416 picks · 566 bans
52%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
338 picks · 158 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
285 picks · 536 bans
47%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
279 picks · 576 bans
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
270 picks · 583 bans
52%
Bristleback
Bristleback
267 picks · 508 bans
58%
Muerta
Muerta
266 picks · 150 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:14
Virtus.pro 60%Wildcard Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 47:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
52% · 211 games47% · 106 games
KunkkaRCY
Kunkka
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritLorenof
50% · 296 games53% · 262 games
MorphlingYamSun
Morphling
Medusa
MedusaDaxak
47% · 155 games53% · 318 games
BristlebackFayde
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockRein
50% · 167 games46% · 321 game
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Tusk
TuskAntares
50% · 324 games51% · 146 games
Nyx AssassinBignum
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct24:13
Virtus.pro 61%Wildcard Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 27:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerV-Tune
53% · 177 games51% · 524 games
TinyYamSun
Tiny
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
50% · 464 games51% · 260 games
Storm SpiritRCY
Storm Spirit
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeDaxak
47% · 300 games47% · 154 games
DawnbreakerFayde
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderAntares
50% · 389 games47% · 286 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
53% · 169 games52% · 275 games
JakiroSpeeed
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 67%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2