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Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BOOM Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 5 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
100%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Dy · 4 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Dy · 3 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dy · 3 games
100%

BOOM Esports

Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 12 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 10 games
40%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 9 games
44%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ws · 8 games
38%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
ILICH- · 8 games
63%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 7 games
71%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
361 picks · 310 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 494 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
268 picks · 365 bans
52%
Magnus
Magnus
251 picks · 462 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
246 picks · 164 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
245 picks · 311 bans
56%
Luna
Luna
244 picks · 227 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:15
Xtreme Gaming 67%BOOM Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageAme
49% · 17 games57% · 114 games
Faceless VoidPakazs
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsXxs
51% · 128 games47% · 150 games
MagnusILICH-
Magnus
Pugna
PugnaXm
38% · 117 games43% · 109 games
Vengeful SpiritPanda
Vengeful Spirit
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
58% · 51 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
56% · 60 games
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Xtreme Gaming 68%BOOM Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
52% · 40 games48% · 208 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Brewmaster
BrewmasterXxs
57% · 48 games47% · 103 games
MarsILICH-
Mars
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritXm
52% · 209 games55% · 193 games
PugnaPanda
Pugna
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenDy
46% · 72 games
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonXinQ
43% · 135 games
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 80%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2