Игры Будущего 2024 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Primal Beastoften banned
Xxs · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
XinQ · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Xxs · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 5 games
Magnusoften banned
Xxs · 4 games
Techies
Dy · 4 games
Bane
Dy · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dy · 3 games
BOOM Esports
Vengeful Spirit
Panda · 12 games
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 10 games
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
Ws · 8 games
Primal Beastsignature
ILICH- · 8 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Panda · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
361 picks · 310 bans
Centaur Warrunner
325 picks · 494 bans
Vengeful Spirit
324 picks · 302 bans
Pangolier
268 picks · 365 bans
Magnus
251 picks · 462 bans
Techies
246 picks · 164 bans
Mars
245 picks · 311 bans
Luna
244 picks · 227 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 62%
Hero pool strength59% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:15
Xtreme Gaming 67%BOOM Esports 33%
The model gave 67% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 31:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageAme
Faceless VoidPakazs
MarsXxs
MagnusILICH-
PugnaXm
Vengeful SpiritPanda
MiranaXinQ
Crystal MaidenDy
Game 2prediction correct32:9
Xtreme Gaming 68%BOOM Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 27:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenAme
MorphlingPakazs
BrewmasterXxs
MarsILICH-
Ember SpiritXm
PugnaPanda
Crystal MaidenDy
Shadow DemonXinQ
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 80%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2