DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Xtreme Gaming
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
Team Falcons
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
637 picks · 991 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 442 bans
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 637 bans
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 1033 bans
Tiny
440 picks · 481 bans
Warlock
438 picks · 268 bans
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
Mars
418 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverAme
KezSkiter
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
RazorATF
MarsXxs
PuckMalr1ne
Dark Willowfy
WarlockSneyking
JakiroxNova
TinyCr1t-
Game 2prediction missed31:24
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:05:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendAme
PuckMalr1ne
UnderlordXxs
RazorATF
Void SpiritNothingToSay
OmniknightSkiter
PhoenixxNova
RingmasterSneyking
Tuskfy
MarciCr1t-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2