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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO2
result vs prediction
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 20 games
65%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 16 games
56%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptor
xNova · 13 games
38%

Team Falcons

Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 38 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 31 game
74%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 29 games
69%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Sneyking · 26 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 25 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
637 picks · 991 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 442 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
462 picks · 637 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
441 picks · 1033 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 481 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
438 picks · 268 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 515 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
418 picks · 574 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total58% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:33
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 46:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverAme
44% · 127 games54% · 128 games
KezSkiter
Kez
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
52% · 489 games55% · 159 games
RazorATF
Razor
Mars
MarsXxs
48% · 419 games52% · 449 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Dark Willow
Dark Willowfy
43% · 201 game50% · 545 games
WarlockSneyking
Warlock
Jakiro
JakiroxNova
49% · 646 games52% · 601 game
TinyCr1t-
Tiny
Game 2prediction missed31:24
Xtreme Gaming 44%Team Falcons 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 1:05:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendAme
46% · 202 games51% · 529 games
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Underlord
UnderlordXxs
46% · 135 games51% · 123 games
RazorATF
Razor
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNothingToSay
47% · 301 game51% · 43 games
OmniknightSkiter
Omniknight
Phoenix
PhoenixxNova
53% · 147 games56% · 312 games
RingmasterSneyking
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tuskfy
47% · 446 games51% · 224 games
MarciCr1t-
Marci
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2