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PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Level UPloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 27 games
59%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
43%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 20 games
65%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Emo · 18 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
71%
Magnus
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
69%
Muerta
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
60%

Level UP

Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
45%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
44%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
44%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 7 games
29%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 7 games
14%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
Phoenix
499 picks · 659 bans
54%
Muerta
Muerta
474 picks · 404 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
462 picks · 590 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
445 picks · 517 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 795 bans
56%
Magnus
Magnus
415 picks · 935 bans
58%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:9
Yakult Brothers 94%Level UP 6%
The model gave 94% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 25:38.
Game 2prediction correct
Yakult Brothers 94%Level UP 6%
The model gave 94% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 94%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2