PGL Wallachia Season 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs predictionseries probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Clockwerkoften banned
BoBoKa · 27 games
Enchantressoften banned
BoBoKa · 21 game
Phoenixsignature
天命 · 20 games
Invokersignature
Emo · 18 games
Pucksignature
Emo · 17 games
Magnussignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Muertasignature
BoBoKa · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Emo · 15 games
Level UP
Rubick
Jeezy · 11 games
Lunaoften banned
Focus · 9 games
Tuskoften banned
SsaSpartan · 9 games
Clockwerkoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Phoenixoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
Dark Willow
xsvampire · 7 games
Invokeroften banned
MaTson · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wuiter · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
499 picks · 659 bans
Muerta
474 picks · 404 bans
Batrider
462 picks · 590 bans
Clockwerk
460 picks · 566 bans
Tiny
445 picks · 517 bans
Gyrocopter
425 picks · 795 bans
Magnus
415 picks · 935 bans
Lion
397 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 45%
Hero pool strength58% Yakult Brothers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:9
Yakult Brothers 94%Level UP 6%
The model gave 94% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 25:38.
Game 2prediction correct
Yakult Brothers 94%Level UP 6%
The model gave 94% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 94%
Series resultYakult Brothers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2