?
arrow_backBack to match
ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Yakult Brothersloss 1:1
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
REKONIXloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
45%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
36%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 25 games
76%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
32%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
41%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 23 games
65%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 14 games
21%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 13 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
73%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 11 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
33%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
665 picks · 824 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 592 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
472 picks · 415 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
471 picks · 318 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1080 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 693 bans
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 997 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 625 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:28
Yakult Brothers 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerGhost
48% · 230 games51% · 330 games
Templar AssassinTraVins
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritMoon
47% · 312 games57% · 425 games
BatriderFbz
Batrider
Tidehunter
TidehunterYang
56% · 148 games45% · 270 games
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
Void Spirit
Tiny
TinyBoBoKa
45% · 346 games57% · 87 games
Faceless Voiddalul
Faceless Void
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman天命
46% · 253 games50% · 177 games
DazzleVarizh
Dazzle
Game 2prediction correct37:37
Yakult Brothers 46%REKONIX 54%
The model gave 54% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightGhost
44% · 394 games56% · 262 games
WindrangerTraVins
Windranger
Pangolier
PangolierMoon
49% · 322 games48% · 108 games
InvokerinYourdreaM
Invoker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterYang
48% · 146 games46% · 392 games
MarsFbz
Mars
Batrider
BatriderBoBoKa
53% · 336 games52% · 344 games
Ringmasterdalul
Ringmaster
Phoenix
Phoenix天命
53% · 236 games51% · 328 games
Shadow ShamanVarizh
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2