ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 28 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 25 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
Batrideroften banned
BoBoKa · 22 games
Leshrac
Moon · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Marsoften banned
zeal · 17 games
REKONIX
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 23 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
inYourdreaM · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
Tusksignature
dalul · 11 games
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 9 games
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
665 picks · 824 bans
Tiny
577 picks · 592 bans
Tusk
472 picks · 415 bans
Warlock
471 picks · 318 bans
Shadow Demon
414 picks · 1080 bans
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 693 bans
Shadow Fiend
386 picks · 997 bans
Mars
382 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% REKONIX
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total53% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:28
Yakult Brothers 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 47:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerGhost
Templar AssassinTraVins
Storm SpiritMoon
BatriderFbz
TidehunterYang
Void SpiritinYourdreaM
TinyBoBoKa
Faceless Voiddalul
Shadow Shaman天命
DazzleVarizh
Game 2prediction correct37:37
Yakult Brothers 46%REKONIX 54%
The model gave 54% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 54:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightGhost
WindrangerTraVins
PangolierMoon
InvokerinYourdreaM
BrewmasterYang
MarsFbz
BatriderBoBoKa
Ringmasterdalul
Phoenix天命
Shadow ShamanVarizh
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 53%
Accuracy by game1 of 2