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BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 3:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Tearlamentsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
59%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
59%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 15 games
47%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 14 games
64%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 14 games
71%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
43%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
38%

Tearlaments

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 10 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 9 games
78%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 9 games
89%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
Srf · 7 games
71%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
7e · 7 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
380 picks · 343 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
341 picks · 858 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
334 picks · 168 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
293 picks · 336 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 790 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
274 picks · 686 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Tearlaments
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total70% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Yakult Brothers 58%Tearlaments 42%
The model gave 58% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaflyfly
53% · 184 games47% · 223 games
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckEmo
49% · 243 games61% · 192 games
Sand KingEcho
Sand King
Mars
Marszeal
38% · 181 game52% · 157 games
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciBoBoKa
49% · 139 games54% · 164 games
Enchantresszzq
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfirePoloson
49% · 210 games49% · 221 game
Hoodwink7e
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction correct46:30
Yakult Brothers 61%Tearlaments 39%
The model gave 61% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:00:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageflyfly
57% · 31 game53% · 183 games
Bristlebackpoyoyo
Bristleback
Lycan
Lycanzeal
52% · 140 games53% · 132 games
EarthshakerEcho
Earthshaker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEmo
47% · 332 games36% · 116 games
MarciSrf
Marci
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBoBoKa
53% · 7 games49% · 143 games
Muerta7e
Muerta
Silencer
SilencerPoloson
52% · 163 games54% · 99 games
Disruptorzzq
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct39:33
Yakult Brothers 59%Tearlaments 41%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursaflyfly
46% · 109 games47% · 153 games
Medusapoyoyo
Medusa
Puck
PuckEmo
43% · 266 games54% · 171 game
Sand KingEcho
Sand King
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinzeal
55% · 84 games48% · 203 games
MarsSrf
Mars
Magnus
MagnusBoBoKa
53% · 167 games51% · 215 games
Shadow Shamanzzq
Shadow Shaman
Snapfire
SnapfirePoloson
44% · 156 games66% · 40 games
Grimstroke7e
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 70%
Series resultYakult Brothers 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3