BLAST Slam IV. Закрытые отборочные · BO5
result vs prediction
Yakult Brotherswin 3:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Tearlamentsloss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yakult Brothers
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 18 games
Silenceroften banned
Oli · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Emo · 15 games
Dark Seersignature
BEYOND · 14 games
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 14 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
flyfly · 14 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
flyfly · 13 games
Tearlaments
Templar Assassinsignature
poyoyo · 10 games
Hoodwinksignature
7e · 9 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
7e · 9 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Srf · 8 games
Marssignature
Srf · 7 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Echo · 7 games
Snapfire
7e · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Echo · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
380 picks · 343 bans
Puck
341 picks · 858 bans
Snapfire
334 picks · 168 bans
Pugna
293 picks · 336 bans
Dawnbreaker
283 picks · 790 bans
Tusk
281 picks · 249 bans
Warlock
280 picks · 126 bans
Batrider
274 picks · 686 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Tearlaments
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total70% Yakult Brothers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:15
Yakult Brothers 58%Tearlaments 42%
The model gave 58% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaflyfly
Templar Assassinpoyoyo
PuckEmo
Sand KingEcho
Marszeal
Centaur WarrunnerSrf
MarciBoBoKa
Enchantresszzq
SnapfirePoloson
Hoodwink7e
Game 2prediction correct46:30
Yakult Brothers 61%Tearlaments 39%
The model gave 61% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:00:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mageflyfly
Bristlebackpoyoyo
Lycanzeal
EarthshakerEcho
Storm SpiritEmo
MarciSrf
Vengeful SpiritBoBoKa
Muerta7e
SilencerPoloson
Disruptorzzq
Game 3prediction correct39:33
Yakult Brothers 59%Tearlaments 41%
The model gave 59% on Yakult Brothers — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 48:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursaflyfly
Medusapoyoyo
PuckEmo
Sand KingEcho
Nyx Assassinzeal
MarsSrf
MagnusBoBoKa
Shadow Shamanzzq
SnapfirePoloson
Grimstroke7e
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers · 70%
Series resultYakult Brothers 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3