CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aalohasquadwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 30 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 24 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
Muerta
bottega · 22 games
alohasquad
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
Ringmaster
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
Clockwerk
Fishman · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
619 picks · 947 bans
Tusk
523 picks · 426 bans
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 623 bans
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 965 bans
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 562 bans
Warlock
407 picks · 251 bans
Tiny
405 picks · 453 bans
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 664 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Yellow Submarine 62%alohasquad 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeusbottega
Shadow FiendShigetsu
PuckDifference
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
BrewmasterInfernal
Viperспортик
WarlockHtrd
TinyALOHADANCE
Nyx Assassinprblms
MiranaFishman
Game 2prediction missed39:38
Yellow Submarine 65%alohasquad 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 57:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeusbottega
Shadow Fiendспортик
Ember SpiritDifference
SlarkShigetsu
LargoInfernal
RazorCloud
Windrangerprblms
TuskALOHADANCE
RingmasterHtrd
JakiroFishman
Game 3prediction missed19:30
Yellow Submarine 62%alohasquad 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeusbottega
UrsaShigetsu
Storm SpiritDifference
Shadow Fiendспортик
AxeInfernal
TidehunterCloud
WarlockHtrd
JakiroFishman
Largoprblms
Shadow ShamanALOHADANCE
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 74%
Series resultalohasquad 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3