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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 1:2
alohasquadwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 30 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 25 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
sayuw · 24 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 24 games
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 23 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 22 games
41%
Muerta
Muerta
bottega · 22 games
59%

alohasquad

Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 5 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ALOHADANCE · 5 games
40%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
67%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fishman · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
619 picks · 947 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
523 picks · 426 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 623 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
428 picks · 965 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
424 picks · 562 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
407 picks · 251 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
405 picks · 453 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 664 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 46%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:16
Yellow Submarine 62%alohasquad 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 47:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusbottega
37% · 23 games49% · 185 games
Shadow FiendShigetsu
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckDifference
50% · 314 games54% · 243 games
Centaur WarrunnerCloud
Centaur Warrunner
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
53% · 102 games57% · 95 games
Viperспортик
Viper
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
40% · 396 games49% · 324 games
TinyALOHADANCE
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinprblms
55% · 58 games57% · 46 games
MiranaFishman
Mirana
Game 2prediction missed39:38
Yellow Submarine 65%alohasquad 35%
The model gave 65% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 57:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusbottega
59% · 23 games51% · 154 games
Shadow Fiendспортик
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritDifference
52% · 410 games50% · 68 games
SlarkShigetsu
Slark
Largo
LargoInfernal
47% · 83 games55% · 81 game
RazorCloud
Razor
Windranger
Windrangerprblms
44% · 322 games43% · 422 games
TuskALOHADANCE
Tusk
Ringmaster
RingmasterHtrd
58% · 435 games47% · 548 games
JakiroFishman
Jakiro
Game 3prediction missed19:30
Yellow Submarine 62%alohasquad 38%
The model gave 62% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by alohasquad in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Zeus
Zeusbottega
45% · 18 games52% · 207 games
UrsaShigetsu
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritDifference
47% · 458 games60% · 191 game
Shadow Fiendспортик
Shadow Fiend
Axe
AxeInfernal
44% · 287 games56% · 195 games
TidehunterCloud
Tidehunter
Warlock
WarlockHtrd
46% · 527 games48% · 544 games
JakiroFishman
Jakiro
Largo
Largoprblms
46% · 74 games57% · 227 games
Shadow ShamanALOHADANCE
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 74%
Series resultalohasquad 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3