EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 25 games
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
Tusk
prblms · 24 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 21 game
Inner Circle
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
Warlock
flacko · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
534 picks · 863 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 378 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 639 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 794 bans
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 556 bans
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 577 bans
Mars
340 picks · 487 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
Yellow Submarine 46%Inner Circle 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritMirele
Razor423
Drow Rangerbottega
Puckniche
BatriderInfernal
Tidehunterlaise
Treant ProtectorHtrd
RingmasterPonlo
Largoprblms
JakiroSe
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Yellow Submarine 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonbottega
Puckniche
Dragon KnightMirele
Drow Ranger423
BrewmasterInfernal
Marslaise
RingmasterHtrd
Treant ProtectorSe
Grimstrokeprblms
HoodwinkPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 63%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2