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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:0
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inner Circleloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 26 games
58%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 25 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 25 games
48%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 24 games
38%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Mirele · 22 games
45%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 21 game
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 21 game
38%

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 21 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
42%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 17 games
35%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
534 picks · 863 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
517 picks · 378 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 639 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 593 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 794 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
351 picks · 556 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
348 picks · 577 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 487 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total63% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:13
Yellow Submarine 46%Inner Circle 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 38:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirele
51% · 418 games45% · 35 games
Razor423
Razor
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerbottega
51% · 45 games52% · 218 games
Puckniche
Puck
Batrider
BatriderInfernal
49% · 279 games49% · 141 game
Tidehunterlaise
Tidehunter
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorHtrd
63% · 43 games53% · 163 games
RingmasterPonlo
Ringmaster
Largo
Largoprblms
78% · 5 games38% · 233 games
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Game 2prediction missed30:14
Yellow Submarine 44%Inner Circle 56%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 44:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
Abaddonbottega
47% · 241 game54% · 351 game
Puckniche
Puck
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMirele
52% · 391 game55% · 26 games
Drow Ranger423
Drow Ranger
Brewmaster
BrewmasterInfernal
42% · 59 games50% · 264 games
Marslaise
Mars
Ringmaster
RingmasterHtrd
49% · 213 games55% · 29 games
Treant ProtectorSe
Treant Protector
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeprblms
59% · 30 games44% · 264 games
HoodwinkPonlo
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 63%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2