CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 38 games
Dark Willow
yamich · 29 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 28 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Pablo · 26 games
Dragon Knight
Nande · 25 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 24 games
Warlock
Se · 24 games
Disruptor
Se · 23 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Ringmastersignature
Riddys · 26 games
Tiny
Niku · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
Niku · 15 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Zayac · 13 games
Dark Seeroften banned
pma · 11 games
Pangolieroften banned
pma · 11 games
Pucksignature
Niku · 11 games
Doomsignature
gotthejuice · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
437 picks · 411 bans
Snapfire
423 picks · 214 bans
Puck
347 picks · 919 bans
Pugna
326 picks · 367 bans
Warlock
290 picks · 143 bans
Tusk
287 picks · 224 bans
Batrider
279 picks · 670 bans
Queen of Pain
278 picks · 850 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere Junior
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total66% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
Zero Tenacity 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger423
Ursarubikon155
Storm SpiritMirage
Void Spiritgbc
UnderlordNefrit
Brewmasterkrol9ash
RubickJeezy
HoodwinkGothic-
MarciSe
JakiroHyugadoto
Game 2prediction correct39:6
Zero Tenacity 58%Natus Vincere Junior 42%
The model gave 58% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 28:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother423
Ursarubikon155
Ember SpiritMirage
Underlordkrol9ash
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Tinygbc
Shadow DemonJeezy
SnapfireGothic-
JakiroSe
DisruptorHyugadoto
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 66%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2