?
arrow_backBack to match
FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
61%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
56%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 32 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 29 games
59%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Se · 28 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 27 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
63%

Virtus.pro

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 18 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
72%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Fly · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 16 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Daxak · 15 games
67%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Fly · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
531 picks · 863 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 376 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 638 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 593 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 796 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 556 bans
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 575 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 486 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total50% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:15
Zero Tenacity 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKami
49% · 334 games52% · 379 games
Dragon KnightTimado
Dragon Knight
Bristleback
BristlebackNefrit
59% · 249 games46% · 242 games
Queen of PainSerenada
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerWorick
52% · 112 games47% · 118 games
UnderlordSabeRLight-
Underlord
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
47% · 451 game46% · 470 games
JakiroFly
Jakiro
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerdEsire
54% · 63 gameslittle data
LargoHellscream
Largo
Game 2prediction correct40:24
Zero Tenacity 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendKami
52% · 117 games63% · 48 games
ClinkzTimado
Clinkz
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
50% · 169 games49% · 57 games
HuskarSerenada
Huskar
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
48% · 256 games44% · 306 games
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Beastmaster
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassindEsire
61% · 57 games50% · 174 games
PhoenixFly
Phoenix
Warlock
WarlockMoOz
46% · 353 games46% · 367 games
TinyHellscream
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 50%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2