FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Virtus.proloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Disruptorsignature
Se · 41 game
Puckoften banned
Mirage · 39 games
Warlock
Se · 32 games
Abaddonoften banned
Kami · 29 games
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 29 games
Enchantresssignature
Se · 28 games
Bristleback
Nefrit · 27 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 27 games
Virtus.pro
Snapfiresignature
Antares · 27 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Abed · 20 games
Jakirooften banned
Fly · 18 games
Pucksignature
Abed · 18 games
Warlocksignature
Fly · 17 games
Marssignature
SabeRLight- · 16 games
Batridersignature
Daxak · 15 games
Chenoften banned
Fly · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
531 picks · 863 bans
Tusk
516 picks · 376 bans
Dragon Knight
471 picks · 638 bans
Centaur Warrunner
457 picks · 593 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 796 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 556 bans
Gyrocopter
345 picks · 575 bans
Mars
341 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total50% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:15
Zero Tenacity 49%Virtus.pro 51%
The model gave 51% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterKami
Dragon KnightTimado
BristlebackNefrit
Queen of PainSerenada
InvokerWorick
UnderlordSabeRLight-
WarlockMoOz
JakiroFly
Spirit BreakerdEsire
LargoHellscream
Game 2prediction correct40:24
Zero Tenacity 52%Virtus.pro 48%
The model gave 52% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow FiendKami
ClinkzTimado
Sand KingWorick
HuskarSerenada
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
BeastmasterSabeRLight-
Nyx AssassindEsire
PhoenixFly
WarlockMoOz
TinyHellscream
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 50%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2