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European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacityloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WW Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 37 games
38%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 37 games
49%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 30 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
52%
Lion
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
41%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 26 games
69%

WW Team

Jakiro
Jakiro
Wein · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
asdekor_r · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkka
ssnovv1 · 2 games
50%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 2 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ssnovv1 · 2 games
0%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
458 picks · 448 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
415 picks · 577 bans
51%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
319 picks · 147 bans
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
301 picks · 604 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
282 picks · 513 bans
48%
Muerta
Muerta
280 picks · 156 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
278 picks · 509 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
276 picks · 567 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% WW Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Zero Tenacity 70%WW Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by WW Team in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetStojkov
55% · 114 games52% · 141 game
Kunkkassnovv1
Kunkka
Monkey King
Monkey KingNande
62% · 117 games39% · 99 games
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Underlord
Slardar
SlardarNefrit
42% · 68 games57% · 64 games
Tinkerasdekor_r
Tinker
Windranger
WindrangerPablo
51% · 145 games46% · 341 game
TuskWein
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLeBronDota
47% · 201 game
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Zero Tenacity 68%WW Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-MageNande
51% · 23 games55% · 253 games
Morphlingssnovv1
Morphling
Underlord
UnderlordNefrit
49% · 82 games43% · 84 games
Tinkerasdekor_r
Tinker
Tiny
TinyStojkov
51% · 253 games56% · 132 games
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Tidehunter
Rubick
RubickPablo
44% · 102 games52% · 208 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Jakiro
JakiroLeBronDota
45% · 217 games
Game 3prediction missed30:39
Zero Tenacity 70%WW Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by WW Team in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
46% · 187 games56% · 146 games
Lifestealerssnovv1
Lifestealer
Slark
SlarkNande
57% · 36 games50% · 71 game
Tinkerasdekor_r
Tinker
Tiny
TinyStojkov
53% · 345 games51% · 394 games
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
Pangolier
Warlock
WarlockLeBronDota
44% · 118 games46% · 229 games
TuskWein
Tusk
Windranger
WindrangerPablo
49% · 154 games
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 84%
Series resultWW Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3