European Pro League Season 26 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
WW Teamwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Zero Tenacity
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 37 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
DaaD- · 37 games
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 30 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 27 games
Lion
Pablo · 27 games
Pangolieroften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Nefrit · 27 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Stojkov · 26 games
WW Team
Jakiro
Wein · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
asdekor_r · 2 games
Elder Titan
asdekor_r · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 2 games
Kunkka
ssnovv1 · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
ssnovv1 · 2 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
ssnovv1 · 2 games
Sand Kingoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
458 picks · 448 bans
Tiny
415 picks · 577 bans
Ringmaster
319 picks · 147 bans
Phantom Assassin
301 picks · 604 bans
Terrorblade
282 picks · 513 bans
Muerta
280 picks · 156 bans
Bristleback
278 picks · 509 bans
Beastmaster
276 picks · 567 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% WW Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:32
Zero Tenacity 70%WW Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by WW Team in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetStojkov
Kunkkassnovv1
Monkey KingNande
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
SlardarNefrit
Tinkerasdekor_r
WindrangerPablo
TuskWein
ClockwerkLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct22:15
Zero Tenacity 68%WW Team 32%
The model gave 68% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 35:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageNande
Morphlingssnovv1
UnderlordNefrit
Tinkerasdekor_r
TinyStojkov
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
RubickPablo
TuskWein
JakiroLeBronDota
Game 3prediction missed30:39
Zero Tenacity 70%WW Team 30%
The model gave 70% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by WW Team in 47:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Lifestealerssnovv1
SlarkNande
Tinkerasdekor_r
TinyStojkov
PangolierVladikTheHtiviy
WarlockLeBronDota
TuskWein
WindrangerPablo
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 84%
Series resultWW Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3