Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1win#14 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust21win pick
69%59%
HEROIC · 12 mapsedge HEROIC +10%1win · 28 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%59%
HEROIC · 12 mapsnearly even +4%1win · 18 maps
Mirage1win ban
67%58%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +9%1win · 15 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
50%57%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge 1win +7%1win · 10 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
67%67%
HEROIC · 11 mapsnearly even +0%1win · 5 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%33%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge HEROIC +17%1win · 14 maps
Nuke1win ban
62%50%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +12%1win · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. Ban1win remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. Pick1win take Dust2
5. Ban1win remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Cache
DeciderAncient (63% / 59%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
HEROIC 57%1win 43%
The model gave 57% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
HEROIC 57%1win 43%
The model gave 57% on HEROIC — the map was taken by 1win.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
HEROIC 59%1win 41%
The model gave 59% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 50%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3