Exort Fiesta Series 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Endless Journey#172 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageMai Tai pick
39%60%
Mai Tai · 14 mapsedge Endless Journey +21%Endless Journey · 11 maps
Defaultpossible decider
35%50%
Mai Tai · 13 mapsedge Endless Journey +15%Endless Journey · 4 maps
AncientEndless Journey ban
42%33%
Mai Tai · 8 mapsedge Mai Tai +9%Endless Journey · 5 maps
Dust2Endless Journey pick
43%69%
Mai Tai · 3 mapsedge Endless Journey +26%Endless Journey · 9 maps
AnubisEndless Journey ban
33%38%
Mai Tai · 5 mapsedge Endless Journey +5%Endless Journey · 4 maps
NukeMai Tai ban
38%44%
Mai Tai · 4 mapsedge Endless Journey +6%Endless Journey · 5 maps
InfernoMai Tai ban
50%40%
Mai Tai · 0 mapsedge Mai Tai +10%Endless Journey · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMai Tai remove Inferno
2. BanEndless Journey remove Anubis
3. PickMai Tai take Mirage
4. PickEndless Journey take Dust2
5. BanEndless Journey remove Ancient
6. BanMai Tai remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (35% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct4:13
Mai Tai 23%Endless Journey 77%
The model gave 77% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Mai Tai 32%Endless Journey 68%
The model gave 68% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Mai Tai.
Nukeprediction correct6:13
Mai Tai 43%Endless Journey 57%
The model gave 57% on Endless Journey — the map was taken by Endless Journey.
Model check result
Model favoriteMai Tai · 55%
Series resultEndless Journey 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3