Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
Astralis#17 in the world · win 2:1series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sangal#40 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientSangal ban
60%40%
Astralis · 11 mapsedge Astralis +20%Sangal · 1 map
CacheSangal pick
56%67%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge Sangal +11%Sangal · 2 maps
Dust2Sangal ban
22%33%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge Sangal +11%Sangal · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
44%50%
Astralis · 5 mapsedge Sangal +6%Sangal · 2 maps
InfernoAstralis pick
50%50%
Astralis · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 0 maps
MirageAstralis ban
43%43%
Astralis · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 3 maps
AnubisAstralis ban
40%57%
Astralis · 1 mapedge Sangal +17%Sangal · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanAstralis remove Anubis
2. BanSangal remove Ancient
3. PickAstralis take Inferno
4. PickSangal take Cache
5. BanSangal remove Dust2
6. BanAstralis remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (44% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct17:19
Astralis 42%Sangal 58%
The model gave 58% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
Astralis 72%Sangal 28%
The model gave 72% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
Astralis 38%Sangal 62%
The model gave 62% on Sangal — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 89%
Series resultAstralis 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3