BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#147 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HEROIC Academy#101 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisALGO pick
67%40%
ALGO · 2 mapsedge ALGO +27%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
50%50%
ALGO · 2 mapsnearly even +0%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
Dust2HEROIC Academy ban
50%40%
ALGO · 0 mapsedge ALGO +10%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
InfernoHEROIC Academy pick
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
MirageALGO ban
50%60%
ALGO · 0 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Mirage
2. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
3. PickALGO take Anubis
4. PickHEROIC Academy take Inferno
5. BanHEROIC Academy remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
ALGO 37%HEROIC Academy 63%
The model gave 63% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by ALGO.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
ALGO 43%HEROIC Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
ALGO 75%HEROIC Academy 25%
The model gave 75% on ALGO — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteALGO · 52%
Series resultHEROIC Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3