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BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
ALGO#146 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
43%29%
ALGO · 3 mapsedge ALGO +14%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
AnubisHEROIC Academy ban
50%40%
ALGO · 4 mapsedge ALGO +10%HEROIC Academy · 1 map
MirageALGO ban
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 4 maps
Overpasspossible decider
33%50%
ALGO · 2 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +17%HEROIC Academy · 2 maps
AncientALGO pick
50%43%
ALGO · 0 mapsedge ALGO +7%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
Dust2ALGO ban
50%29%
ALGO · 0 mapsedge ALGO +21%HEROIC Academy · 3 maps
DefaultHEROIC Academy pick
40%50%
ALGO · 1 mapedge HEROIC Academy +10%HEROIC Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanALGO remove Dust2
2. BanHEROIC Academy remove Anubis
3. PickALGO take Ancient
4. PickHEROIC Academy take Default
5. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
6. BanALGO remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:8
ALGO 47%HEROIC Academy 53%
The model gave 53% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by ALGO.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
ALGO 43%HEROIC Academy 57%
The model gave 57% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
ALGO 60%HEROIC Academy 40%
The model gave 60% on ALGO — the map was taken by HEROIC Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC Academy · 59%
Series resultHEROIC Academy 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3