NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#30 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sashi#38 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoHOTU ban
50%60%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%Sashi · 1 map
NukeSashi ban
50%60%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%Sashi · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanSashi remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
HOTU 37%Sashi 63%
The model gave 63% on Sashi — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
HOTU 53%Sashi 47%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 51%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2