NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sashi#94 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSashi pick
50%57%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge Sashi +7%Sashi · 3 maps
Dust2Sashi ban
50%33%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge HOTU +17%Sashi · 2 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%71%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Sashi +21%Sashi · 3 maps
AncientHOTU pick
50%50%
HOTU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Sashi · 0 maps
OverpassSashi ban
50%60%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Sashi +10%Sashi · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanSashi remove Dust2
3. PickHOTU take Ancient
4. PickSashi take Nuke
5. BanSashi remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
HOTU 40%Sashi 60%
The model gave 60% on Sashi — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
HOTU 69%Sashi 31%
The model gave 69% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 51%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2