Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#81 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#154 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%57%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
71%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +31%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
AncientInner Circle Academy pick
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
60%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +10%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Ancient
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Anubis
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
BASEMENT BOYS 57%Inner Circle Academy 43%
The model gave 57% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct8:13
BASEMENT BOYS 46%Inner Circle Academy 54%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
BASEMENT BOYS 79%Inner Circle Academy 21%
The model gave 79% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 68%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3