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Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
BASEMENT BOYS#96 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
56%57%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsnearly even -1%Inner Circle Academy · 3 maps
AncientInner Circle Academy pick
67%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 5 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +17%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Dust2BASEMENT BOYS pick
70%40%
BASEMENT BOYS · 6 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +30%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
MirageBASEMENT BOYS ban
57%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
AnubisInner Circle Academy ban
50%60%
BASEMENT BOYS · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%Inner Circle Academy · 1 map
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
43%50%
BASEMENT BOYS · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Inner Circle Academy · 0 maps
OverpassBASEMENT BOYS ban
40%67%
BASEMENT BOYS · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +27%Inner Circle Academy · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Overpass
2. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
3. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle Academy take Ancient
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Anubis
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (56% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
BASEMENT BOYS 64%Inner Circle Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction missed8:13
BASEMENT BOYS 51%Inner Circle Academy 49%
The model gave 51% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
BASEMENT BOYS 78%Inner Circle Academy 22%
The model gave 78% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteBASEMENT BOYS · 72%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3