Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
A Great Chaosloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MASONIC#219 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2MASONIC ban
40%40%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapnearly even +0%MASONIC · 1 map
MirageMASONIC ban
50%50%
A Great Chaos · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MASONIC · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%60%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapnearly even +0%MASONIC · 1 map
AncientA Great Chaos pick
50%40%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%MASONIC · 1 map
AnubisMASONIC pick
50%60%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge MASONIC +10%MASONIC · 1 map
DefaultA Great Chaos ban
50%40%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%MASONIC · 1 map
InfernoA Great Chaos ban
50%40%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%MASONIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanA Great Chaos remove Inferno
2. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
3. PickA Great Chaos take Ancient
4. PickMASONIC take Anubis
5. BanMASONIC remove Dust2
6. BanA Great Chaos remove Default
DeciderNuke (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
A Great Chaos 53%MASONIC 47%
The model gave 53% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Nukeprediction correct11:13
A Great Chaos 47%MASONIC 53%
The model gave 53% on MASONIC — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteA Great Chaos · 52%
Series resultMASONIC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2