Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MASONIC#187 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientMASONIC pick
40%50%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapedge MASONIC +10%MASONIC · 4 maps
Dust2A Great Chaos pick
50%43%
A Great Chaos · 2 mapsedge A Great Chaos +7%MASONIC · 3 maps
MirageMASONIC ban
44%50%
A Great Chaos · 5 mapsedge MASONIC +6%MASONIC · 0 maps
Nukepossible decider
57%50%
A Great Chaos · 3 mapsedge A Great Chaos +7%MASONIC · 2 maps
InfernoA Great Chaos ban
50%43%
A Great Chaos · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +7%MASONIC · 3 maps
AnubisA Great Chaos ban
60%60%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapnearly even +0%MASONIC · 1 map
OverpassMASONIC ban
40%40%
A Great Chaos · 1 mapnearly even +0%MASONIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanA Great Chaos remove Inferno
2. BanMASONIC remove Mirage
3. PickA Great Chaos take Dust2
4. PickMASONIC take Ancient
5. BanMASONIC remove Overpass
6. BanA Great Chaos remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (57% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed2:13
A Great Chaos 60%MASONIC 40%
The model gave 60% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
A Great Chaos 54%MASONIC 46%
The model gave 54% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by MASONIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteMASONIC · 53%
Series resultMASONIC 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2