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NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#73 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Oxuji#173 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Johnny Speeds ban
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 4 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Oxuji · 6 maps
MirageOxuji ban
44%50%
Johnny Speeds · 5 mapsedge Oxuji +6%Oxuji · 2 maps
NukeJohnny Speeds ban
50%73%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Oxuji +23%Oxuji · 7 maps
Ancientpossible decider
57%67%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +10%Oxuji · 2 maps
DefaultOxuji pick
60%75%
Johnny Speeds · 1 mapedge Oxuji +15%Oxuji · 4 maps
InfernoJohnny Speeds pick
67%29%
Johnny Speeds · 2 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +38%Oxuji · 3 maps
AnubisOxuji ban
29%40%
Johnny Speeds · 3 mapsedge Oxuji +11%Oxuji · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Nuke
2. BanOxuji remove Anubis
3. PickJohnny Speeds take Inferno
4. PickOxuji take Default
5. BanOxuji remove Mirage
6. BanJohnny Speeds remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (57% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Johnny Speeds 57%Oxuji 43%
The model gave 57% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Johnny Speeds 85%Oxuji 15%
The model gave 85% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Johnny Speeds 44%Oxuji 56%
The model gave 56% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 73%
Series resultOxuji 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3