NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Johnny Speeds#58 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Oxuji#167 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoJohnny Speeds ban
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Oxuji · 1 map
NukeOxuji ban
50%40%
Johnny Speeds · 0 mapsedge Johnny Speeds +10%Oxuji · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanJohnny Speeds remove Inferno
2. BanOxuji remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Johnny Speeds 47%Oxuji 53%
The model gave 53% on Oxuji — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Johnny Speeds 63%Oxuji 37%
The model gave 63% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Johnny Speeds 50%Oxuji 50%
The model gave 50% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Oxuji.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 73%
Series resultOxuji 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3