PGL Astana 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Spirit#1 in the world · win 3:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Falcons#5 in the world · loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit pick
75%70%
Spirit · 4 mapsedge Spirit +5%Falcons · 6 maps
AncientFalcons pick
71%71%
Spirit · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 3 maps
MirageSpirit pick
60%57%
Spirit · 1 mapnearly even +3%Falcons · 3 maps
NukeFalcons pick
50%50%
Spirit · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 2 maps
InfernoSpirit ban
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%Falcons · 1 map
OverpassFalcons ban
40%50%
Spirit · 1 mapedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Inferno
2. BanFalcons remove Overpass
3. PickSpirit take Dust2
4. PickFalcons take Ancient
5. PickSpirit take Mirage
6. PickFalcons take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:12
Spirit 59%Falcons 41%
The model gave 59% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Spirit 50%Falcons 50%
The model gave 50% on Falcons — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Spirit 53%Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 54%
Series resultSpirit 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3