PGL Astana 2026 · BO5
result vs prediction
Spirit#5 in the world · win 3:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Falcons#1 in the world · loss 0:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Spirit ban
50%67%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 2 maps
AncientSpirit pick
50%60%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 1 map
MirageFalcons ban
50%40%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Spirit +10%Falcons · 1 map
NukeFalcons pick
50%60%
Spirit · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSpirit remove Dust2
2. BanFalcons remove Mirage
3. PickSpirit take Ancient
4. PickFalcons take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:12
Spirit 36%Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Falcons — the map was taken by Spirit.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Spirit 57%Falcons 43%
The model gave 57% on Spirit — the map was taken by Spirit.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
Spirit 43%Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Falcons — the map was taken by Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 61%
Series resultSpirit 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3