PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#21 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Falcons#1 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2magic pick
50%60%
magic · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 1 map
MirageFalcons ban
50%40%
magic · 0 mapsedge magic +10%Falcons · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
50%60%
magic · 0 mapsedge Falcons +10%Falcons · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanFalcons remove Mirage
3. Pickmagic take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
magic 53%Falcons 47%
The model gave 53% on magic — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
magic 37%Falcons 63%
The model gave 63% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 58%
Series resultFalcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2