PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
magic#18 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Falcons#5 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
67%57%
magic · 8 mapsedge magic +10%Falcons · 3 maps
Dust2magic ban
50%67%
magic · 4 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 5 maps
InfernoFalcons ban
63%40%
magic · 4 mapsedge magic +23%Falcons · 1 map
AncientFalcons pick
50%67%
magic · 2 mapsedge Falcons +17%Falcons · 2 maps
Nukemagic ban
50%50%
magic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Falcons · 2 maps
OverpassFalcons ban
67%50%
magic · 2 mapsedge magic +17%Falcons · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banmagic remove Nuke
2. BanFalcons remove Overpass
3. Pickmagic take Mirage
4. PickFalcons take Ancient
5. BanFalcons remove Inferno
6. Banmagic remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
magic 36%Falcons 64%
The model gave 64% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
magic 31%Falcons 69%
The model gave 69% on Falcons — the map was taken by Falcons.
Model check result
Model favoriteFalcons · 88%
Series resultFalcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2