IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#31 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Astralis#9 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Astralis pick
40%40%
SINNERS · 1 mapnearly even +0%Astralis · 1 map
MirageAstralis ban
60%50%
SINNERS · 1 mapedge SINNERS +10%Astralis · 0 maps
NukeSINNERS ban
50%40%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +10%Astralis · 1 map
OverpassSINNERS pick
60%50%
SINNERS · 1 mapedge SINNERS +10%Astralis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Nuke
2. BanAstralis remove Mirage
3. PickSINNERS take Overpass
4. PickAstralis take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
SINNERS 63%Astralis 37%
The model gave 63% on SINNERS — the map was taken by Astralis.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
SINNERS 47%Astralis 53%
The model gave 53% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 57%
Series resultAstralis 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2