IEM Atlanta 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
SINNERS#45 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Astralis#15 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Astralis ban
50%43%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +7%Astralis · 3 maps
MirageAstralis ban
71%60%
SINNERS · 3 mapsedge SINNERS +11%Astralis · 1 map
NukeAstralis pick
50%50%
SINNERS · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Astralis · 2 maps
OverpassSINNERS pick
67%33%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge SINNERS +34%Astralis · 2 maps
InfernoSINNERS ban
33%40%
SINNERS · 2 mapsedge Astralis +7%Astralis · 1 map
AncientSINNERS ban
50%60%
SINNERS · 0 mapsedge Astralis +10%Astralis · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanSINNERS remove Ancient
2. BanAstralis remove Mirage
3. PickSINNERS take Overpass
4. PickAstralis take Nuke
5. BanAstralis remove Dust2
6. BanSINNERS remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
SINNERS 65%Astralis 35%
The model gave 65% on SINNERS — the map was taken by Astralis.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
SINNERS 40%Astralis 60%
The model gave 60% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 75%
Series resultAstralis 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2