PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#5 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#18 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
Not enough maps played over 3 months to build a veto prediction.
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
MOUZ 47%9z 53%
The model gave 53% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
MOUZ 53%9z 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
MOUZ 50%9z 50%
The model gave 50% on MOUZ — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 51%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3