PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZ#3 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
9z#17 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
40%57%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge 9z +17%9z · 3 maps
Mirage9z ban
50%33%
MOUZ · 2 mapsedge MOUZ +17%9z · 2 maps
AncientMOUZ ban
60%67%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge 9z +7%9z · 2 maps
Nuke9z pick
60%67%
MOUZ · 1 mapedge 9z +7%9z · 2 maps
Inferno9z ban
60%60%
MOUZ · 1 mapnearly even +0%9z · 1 map
AnubisMOUZ ban
50%40%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge MOUZ +10%9z · 1 map
OverpassMOUZ pick
50%60%
MOUZ · 0 mapsedge 9z +10%9z · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanMOUZ remove Anubis
2. Ban9z remove Mirage
3. PickMOUZ take Overpass
4. Pick9z take Nuke
5. Ban9z remove Inferno
6. BanMOUZ remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (40% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct10:13
MOUZ 40%9z 60%
The model gave 60% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Infernoprediction correct13:4
MOUZ 53%9z 47%
The model gave 53% on MOUZ — the map was taken by MOUZ.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
MOUZ 43%9z 57%
The model gave 57% on 9z — the map was taken by 9z.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 61%
Series result9z 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3